New polls show Democrats could 'win' the 2022 midterms. Should you believe them?

After months of missteps, mishaps and misfortune, President Biden and his fellow Democrats are finally enjoying a run of good news. Landmark climate legislation. A popular plan to lower prescription drug prices.

Falling gas prices. Mounting legal problems for Biden’s would-be 2024 opponent, Donald Trump. And new polls that show Democratic candidates gaining ground in key races across the country.

But will it be enough to prevent the sort of electoral bloodbath that a president’s party usually suffers in the midterms? Could Democrats actually “win” in 2022?

According to the latest data, the answer is ... possibly. And those are better odds than Biden & Co. had any reason to expect even a few weeks ago. For decades now, the pattern has been clear. There have been 19 midterms since World War II.

In 16 of them, the president’s party lost five or more seats in the House — the number that Republicans need to net this year to take control. Historically speaking, that means Democrats have an 84% chance of losing the House in November. Americans almost always vote against the president in midterm elections.

Factor in Biden’s anemic approval rating (the worst of any modern president at this stage of his first term) and astronomical inflation numbers (the highest since the early 1980s), and it looks like a recipe for Democratic disaster.

Over the last month, Biden’s average disapproval rating has fallen more than two points, according to polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight; his average approval rating has risen nearly three points.