Brazil is still the favorite to win this year’s World Cup, according to data analytics from Nielsen Gracenote, with the field down to the final eight teams.
Brazil’s likelihood of winning is currently 25%. Brazil currently has a 20% chance of defeating Argentina, who they will face in the semifinals provided both teams win their quarterfinal matches.
Portugal has a 13% probability of winning the World Cup and has surpassed Switzerland to take the top spot on the other side of the draw after their Round of 16 victory. The Netherlands and France (both on 11%) are in second place, and England has a 10% chance of winning the 2022 World Cup.
The top three teams in the world according to Gracenote, Brazil, Argentina, and the Netherlands, are represented on the left side of the bracket. Portugal, France, and England, who are ranked 4, 6, and 7 respectively, are on the right side of the bracket. Using a different methodology than the FIFA World Rankings, Croatia and Morocco are ranked 12th and 14th in the world, respectively.
Highlighted Statistics
· Brazil is the clear favorite to win the 2022 World Cup, with the team having a 25% chance of taking home the trophy on December 18. The main competitors, Argentina, have a 20% chance of winning, followed by Portugal with a 13% chance, the Netherlands with a 11% chance, France with a 11% chance, and England with a 10% chance.
. If both teams defeat their upcoming opponents, Brazil and Argentina will definitely play each other in the semifinals. On the other side of the draw, a rematch of the France vs. Portugal Euro 2016 championship game could occur.
. Brazil, Portugal, Argentina, and France are the four most likely teams (in order of likelihood) to advance to the semifinals. Given the chances, one or two of those clubs should be surprised and fail to advance to the final four.
. Brazil and Portugal have a 39% and 30% chance, respectively, of winning the World Cup. Argentina has a 31% chance, but if Brazil wins, they will not advance to the final. The remaining options include France (27%), England (25%), the Netherlands (19%), Morocco (18%), and Croatia (11%).
. With a chance of 11.9%, the final between Brazil and Portugal is the most likely of the 16 World Cup finals at this point.
The odds-on favorite to advance to the semifinals are Brazil (70%), followed by Portugal (59%), Argentina (58%) and France (51%). France vs. England appears to be the quarterfinal game with the most tension
Morocco is the only one of the quarterfinalists who genuinely caught everyone off guard; prior to the competition, they were placed 20th in terms of likelihood to advance, with a 16% chance. Prior to the competition, Gracenote ranked Morocco as the top African team. In our pre-tournament projections, Croatia was the 12th most probable team to advance to the round of eight.
Brazil is still expected to win the 2022 World Cup with a 25% chance of doing so, followed by Argentina with a 20% chance, Portugal with a 13% chance, the Netherlands with an 11% chance, France with an 11% chance, and England with a 10% chance.
There are now just 16 conceivable World Cup finals. Brazil vs. Portugal is the most likely matchup, with a mere 11.9% chance of taking place. Brazil vs. France (10.6%), Brazil vs. England (9.7%), and Argentina vs. Portugal (9.4%) come after it. At this time, only these finals have a possibility of happening of at least 9%.
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